

Editorial
There's been a three-way staring contest since late February between Washington, Iran and Czech mortgage banks. Who will blink first? The price banks pay for money has gone up thanks to the conflict in the Middle East. It's only a matter of time before they start passing that extra cost onto their clients.
No, the Czech National Bank rate hasn't suddenly raised rates above the current 3.5%. The guys running that place only meet every month or two, so sudden U-turns are about as rare as pandemics. Instead, what the smart money usually follows are the 5-year interest rate swaps. And those rates (known as IRS) smashed upwards almost immediately once the bombs started falling in Tehran.
Back in mid-January, the IRS was down at about 3.30%, whereas mortgages were averaging 4.46%. Today, the 5-year swap sits at 4.42% — leaving the spread between swap and mortgage rate at essentially zero. Banks are, right now, lending below their own swap hedge cost. You can't rationally expect that to last long. What seems clear is that if the war persists, or spreads, mortgage rates will eventually start heading back to, or beyond 5%.
How fast though? The post-COVID experience suggests it wouldn't take more than about six months. Back in 2022 as the first inflation crisis kicked in, the CNB hiked to 7%. Banks eventually passed the pain on to consumers — but only in part, and they were slow about it.
Then again, they were also slow to start cutting rates after the CNB started bringing down its rates. In 2024, net interest margins peaked at 2.65% — the highest in a decade. That's the smoking gun: banks were collecting record margins precisely because they lagged.
Resi mortgages are one thing. But what about developer bonds? Last year, developers were selling them for coupons of between 6.5% (KKCG), 7% (HB Reavis) and 7.3% (Trigema). Since late February, 5-year swaps have risen roughly 70 bps. Why would investors not want to see this reflected in higher coupons?
The Czech National Bank is preaching calm, betting that the current conflict will fade. It’s not a bad take. "Don't freak out" is probably the best general investment advice out there. With US elections coming up this fall, you'd think the appetite to ruin an otherwise growing economy would be minimal. Unfortunately, as we’ve learned recently, those who start nonsense wars often lack the sense to end them.
Let's hope logic prevails.
Are Czech funds Overpaying? April 13
Tickets are selling now for ThePrime Data Summit at Zenwork. The event take places on April 13 at Perlova 5 in central Prague. Confirmed speakers include Robert Kubin (Amundi) Mark Robinson (Encor Wealth), Dušan Sykora (REICO), Peter Bečar (Crowdberry) and Michal Sotak (Cushman & Wakefield). This is a 2-hour + mixer event sponsored by Cushman & Wakefield that’s open to everyone. At CZK 1,350, I think it’s real value-for-money that gets straight to the point.
RE News
Karlín Group has sold its stake in the Nové Holešovice joint venture to EP Real Estate, exercising its preemption right. Serge Borenstein confirmed the deal for E15. His JV with Prague's transport authority (DPP) and CPI Property Group was set up to redevelop the Nádraží Holešovice metro station and its surroundings. The deal was probably inevitable, since EP Real Estate (owned by business mogul Daniel Křetínský) is already a dominant landowner in the district via its energy and sports activities. Then there’s his enormous holdings in adjacent Bubny where the development potential runs to up to 300,000 sqm GFA. The buyout consolidates land control ahead of a masterplan that has been politically complicated. Karlín Group retains its own land near the southern metro vestibule and will continue participating in the ongoing international masterplan workshop. "For the transport authority, this is a dream deal," said Jan Ludvík of Karlín Group.
The Czech National Bank left its base rate at 3.5% at Thursday's board meeting — where it has sat since the May 2025 cut of 25 bps. Lombard rate stays at 4.5%, discount at 2.5%. No surprise from markets. February inflation fell below the 2% target for a second consecutive month, but the Middle East conflict and rising oil prices appear to have given CNB’s board reason to hold. Rate direction from here depends on how the oil and FX picture evolves.
Demaco has turned its in-house design and engineering function into a standalone practice. DMC Design & Engineering, led by Filip Slabotinský alongside Tomáš Budař and Jaroslav Kaizr, operates as a separate entity — and external assignments already account for roughly half its workload, a share that is growing. In an interview with ThePrime, Slabotinský explains how the company deployed its dmc donstruct methodology for the Lenzing Biocel facility at DMC Paskov where it achieve a change in zoning in just 12 months and the construction permit was filed 2 months later.
Czechs believe in real estate so deeply that they invest in it despite the hassle, and even when it isn't making them money. If more of them don't, it's probably only because more of them can't afford to. That’s how I read a new STEM/MARK survey for Salutem Group. It found that 39% of Czechs consider property the safest investment available — above savings accounts, gold, equities, or bonds. Yet only 6% of the population actually holds investment property; among households saving CZK 10,000+ monthly, the share rises to 17%. And that’s despite the fact that gross rental yield averages 3.6% annually. Throw in costs and vacancies and that falls below 3% — less than savings accounts (after taxes). Higher yields are on offer in the regions – up to 5.9% gross. But the premium reflects higher default risk, not a free lunch. Yet 2/3 of all Czech investors in real estate are active outside Prague and Brno.
Global real estate deal colume reached $873 billion in 2025 according to McKinsey & Company, up 12% year over year. But that’s thanks to larger ticket sizes rather than more deal activity. While the office sector saw a 17% recovery in the volume of office deals, there’s a growing enthusiasm for specialty properties like data centers, senior and student housing, and flex industrial, with global deal volume rising 14%. Weaker assets face structural obsolescence with few viable conversion paths. Closed-end fundraising rebounded 16% to $146 billion, but it’s the second-lowest annual total for the past ten years. It’s also just half pre-pandemic levels.
Olomouc construction firm Gemo has taken a 40% co-investor stake in Sequoia, the 33,000 sqm office building Passerinvest is building at Roztyly metro. The CZK 4 billion project is financed with 50% debt with the developer hoping to earn €23.5 per sqm rents when it opens two years from now. Passerinvest is simultaneously developing the Hila and Orion building at its Brumlovka campus in Prague 4. Expressed a different way, the developer is investing a total of CZK 21 billion by 2029. While it intends to add the two additions to Brumlovka to its permanent portfolio, Passerinvest plans to sell the remainder of Sequoia at some point.
Czech hotels recorded their best transaction year ever in 2025: 16 deals totaling €764 million, according to Cushman & Wakefield. Prague drove the story — 13 hotels, €742 million, up 870% year-on-year. Average price per key exceeded €255,000, up 62% from 2024, lifted by the Hilton Prague which was acquired by PPF, Four Seasons Prague, and the Diplomat. And it’s not over, as there’s nearly €500 million in deals still in play, including (allegedly) the Marriott Prague, Augustine, Mozart Prague, and Andaz Prague.
PSN has brought in Martin Šrytr as Business Development Manager, tasked with identifying acquisition opportunities with a focus on the Prague market. Šrytr arrives via Twistcafe Group, where he led EMEA retail expansion for franchise concepts; before that, Cushman & Wakefield (commercial advisory), Prochazka & Partners (lease and transaction negotiations), and IWG. PSN focuses on urban residential revitalization across Prague and other Czech cities.
ThePrime Reader
-Filip Slabotinský (DMC Design & Engineering): We take a systematic approach to design
-Stats office says 2025 economic growth stronger than expected
-ZDR Investments: From Zero to CZK 20 Billion in Eight Years — And Still Shopping Conservatively
-New Šeberov retail park wins zoning decision after a decade of struggle
-Stats office says 2025 economic growth stronger than expected
-User-First Development: Demaco’s DMC Paskov and the Power of Long-Term Industrial Vision
-Spire Capital Partners agrees strategic capital for BONARD
-Manova sells Amazon Returns Center in Sereď
-Prague Matches London for Retail Openings; US Brands Surge
-Dr. Max extends lease at Prologis Park Prague-Rudná
-Butovice Offices bought by Investika
-UBM Warns Labor Shortage Reshaping Prague Development
-CTP begins construction on ABB’s newest facility
-David Mazáček (Upvest): We’re not trying to replace banks
-GARTAL ramps up output, beginning with City Lofts
-Signal Space raises the entertainment bar in central Prague
-Marketa Vrbasová (Knight Frank): Auto Suppliers Face Indirect Hit from Trade Wars
-Pavel Sovička (Panattoni): Productivity is the problem. Not developers
