Editorial

By 2021, central banks around the world slashed interest rates, allegedly in an attempt to restart their countries’ economies, and to calm down financial markets. Who knows how much these policies actually helped GDP figures. But hundreds of thousands of Czechs seized the opportunity to refinance their mortgage loans.

Who could blame them? Rates were at a historic low, so the idea of paying down as much of the interest for the next five years made sense. When the shock of war in Ukraine kicked off a new round of inflation, interest rates shot up again. Once again, this seemed to justify those who had refinanced their mortgages in time. Rates were even coming down again, if not to the record low levels of 2021, they were at least consistently coming in at less than 5%.

Unfortunately, the world has no lack of bullying world leaders desperate to prove their manliness by launching poorly-planned wars. So, rates are headed back up above 5%. That’s bad news for the estimated 140,000 Czech households that are supposedly up for refinancing this year.

It’s not just mortgage prices either. I’m already seeing signs for CZK 50 per liter diesel around Prague. An extreme, perhaps, at least in the short-term. But I’m genuinely curious how this will play out going forward. Because essentially, both the price of gasoline and the price of mortgages are determined by bets – bets made via 5-year interest rate swaps (in the case of mortgage rates) and bets made on oil futures on commodities markets (in the case of fuel). And the odds governing those bets have now shifted substantially.

A potentially inflationary future means that interest rate swaps — basically, insurance against interest rate volatility — get more expensive. Because it’s just plain riskier. And now that Iran has proved it’s willing to shut the Strait of Hormuz, there’s no risk-free supply of oil and natural gas. You can’t just take it for granted. That makes trades in futures commodities more expensive, and by extension, drives up the price you pay at the pump.

What’s worrying is that unlike money, you can’t just print oil. You can’t wire it to whoever needs it. Central banks helped smooth the bumps of a liquidity crisis in 2008 and in 2020 by printing money. That ain’t gonna work this time.

Because supply and demand for oil are directly linked. Pricing both reflects imbalances between the two and it forces them, like gravity, back into alignment. So, if supply falls, consumption will have to fall as well. It’s just physics.

Remember during Covid how oil prices fell to negative $40 per barrel? It seemed crazy, but few people driving or travelling, demand simply dried up. Producers didn’t want to just stop producing oil, but had nowhere to put it. So they had to start paying for its storage. This drove prices down to absurd levels.

That same logic works in the opposite direction too during a scarcity crisis. Will CZK 50 per liter stop people from driving? Or flying overseas on vacation? The end of this conflict just can’t come soon enough.

Are Czech funds Overpaying? April 13

Tickets are selling now for ThePrime Data Summit at Zenwork. The event take places on April 13 at Perlova 5 in central Prague. Confirmed speakers include Robert Kubin (Amundi) Mark Robinson (Encor Wealth), Dušan Sykora (REICO), Peter Bečar (Crowdberry) and Michal Sotak (Cushman & Wakefield). This is a 2-hour + mixer event sponsored by Cushman & Wakefield that’s open to everyone. At CZK 1,350, I think it’s real value-for-money that gets straight to the point.

RE News

  • You know those Knihcentrum and Kanzelsberger bookstores you still see around? Soon, you won’t. Having spent last year hoovering up 26 Kanzelsbergers and nearly a dozen Knihcentrums,  Eurocentrum will turn them all into Luxor bookstores. That will push the chain past 70 locations, cementing its position as the largest Czech network. The only thing that changes for landlords will be the signage since the owner remains Rockaway Capital subsidiary Euromedia.

  • With the handover of an 11,000 sqm production and office building to Brose, the developer Gridarch has completed Phase II of Ostrava Airport Multimodal Park. It’s the German automotive supplier’s third plant. EQT Real Estate previously snapped up the three previous Phase II halls (totaling 120,000 sqm), bringing the park’s current footprint to 382,000 sqm. The momentum continues: BMW Group’s 124,000 sqm overseas logistics hub breaks ground in a few months, and the developer—still widely known as Concens Investments—has permits in hand for another 172,500 sqm of space.Developed by the company most people still know as Concens Investments. The OAMP zone will eventually exceed 550,000 sqm.

  • German chemicals group WACKER has taken over its new 25,000 sqm manufacturing facility at Panattoni Business Park Karlovy Vary. It’s the company’s second Czech production site. Accolade held the investment position and had been preparing the site since 2016. WACKER expects to employ up to 200 people once it’s up to speed, producing specialty silicone rubber for automotive, e-mobility, energy, and medical applications. The building sits near exit 125 on the D6.

  • Kik is closing around 300 stores globally in 2026. All we know is that 135 of them will shut their doors in its home market Germany. But how many of the discounter’s 230 Czech stores isn’t clear. CEO Christian Kümmel says the closures are part of a push to focus on profits that have been hurt by over-expansion. He admits the company sometimes opened stores less than a kilometer apart, a strategy that led to predictable results. "We opened five new stores but didn't get five times the customers." It’s not just Kik, however. Germany's Retail Association expects total store count to fall below 300,000 this year — down from 372,000 in 2015.

  • Jmem Technology is opening a Prague office in April — its first location outside Taiwan and Silicon Valley. The company builds encryption chips designed to resist attacks from quantum computers. That makes drones and defence systems its primary end market. Jmem will work closely with the Advanced Chip and Semiconductor Research Centre (ACDRC) in Brno. Doctoral students there have been collaborating with Jmem Tek on joint R&D projects. The company intends to use its Czech base to expand partnerships across Europe.

  • Savills is paying USD 1.1 billion for Eastdil Secured, the largest acquisition in the firm's history by some distance. It will pay for the deal using debt as well as the issuance of new shares.  In a flex based on MSCI data, Savills claims it’s now the world's second-largest advisory firm for prime commercial real estate transactions above $100 million.

  • Another South Korean-owned Prague office is going on the market: Florenc Office Center on Pobřežní street in Prague 8. Shinhan Investment acquired it in 2018 — is being sold via CBRE. The 11,000 sqm building was built back in 2003 and underwent a €10 million renovation in 2018. Its anchor tenant KPMG is signed up at least through 2028. Shinhan joins a now-familiar procession: Forum Karlín, Keystone, River Garden II & III, and Riverside have all recently traded or are in process, almost uniformly from Korean hands to Czech buyers. Also reportedly on the market: Trimaran and Element on Pankrác.

  • The majestic Národní dům on Vinohrady's náměstí Míru has finally been sold off — on the eighth attempt. The hammer fell at the reserve price of CZK 399 million. The neo-Renaissance ballroom complex (built in 1893-1894) first went under auction last April at CZK 760 million. Except nobody wanted it at that price. This was the first auction to attract a bid, even though the price was reduced for each round. The name of the winner hasn’t been made public. With the price now set, the City of Prague has the right to match it. The current tenant — Kulturní dům železničářů — holds a lease until mid-2032.

  • Wood & Company is co-developing Vokovická Šárka with Crestyl. The CZK 4 billion scheme will see the construction of 224 apartments and 6 family homes on the former Aritma brownfield in Prague 6. That’s adjacent to the Šárka forest, meaning it will be very nice. With the building permit in place, construction could begin by autumn. Presales will launch even sooner.

  • Natland has bought the Zličín Gate residential project in Prague 17 from Invista Real Estate. It’s the company’s latest in a series of real estate acquisitions in recent months. Up to 20,000 sqm of residential floor space is to be built across five buildings designed by Loxia. Construction could start in 2027, but that will depend on the permits situation. Natland is converting a Hostivař property into around 50 apartments and it recently picked up the Bajkalská Office Centre in Bratislava.

     

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